From the vantage point of most box-office analysts, Sony's political thriller Vantage Point, will likely be the film to beat this weekend. A political thriller about an attempted assassination told from the point of view of characters played by Matthew Fox, William Hurt, Eduardo Noriega, Dennis Quaid, Sigourney Weaver, and Forest Whitaker, the film is expected to take in about $20 million. Three other new films are not expected to give it much competition. The New Line comedy Be Kind Rewind, starring Jack Black, opens in just 808 theaters and is likely to take in $8-11 million, say the forecasters. MGM's Charlie Bartlett, a comedy set in a high school but which is rated R because of drug references, is expected to wind up with $7-10 million; Witless Protection, which was not screened for critics, is arriving with what Daily Variety described as "understated" expectations.