The Irish singer quit his own boyband in 2004 to spend more time with his family and to launch himself as a solo artist, leaving the group to continue without him as a four-piece.
He believes Horan will eventually follow in his footsteps, and those of former That That star Robbie Williams, by exiting One Direction and branching out on his own.
MCFadden tells Britain's Real Radio Yorkshire, "I reckon from One Direction, probably Niall (will be first to leave). He comes across as the guy who'll probably follow in my steps and Robbie's steps and be the first to leave. All the ones that leave first always have that same kind of twinkle in their eye; they're a bit bold, a bit naughty!
"I reckon Niall's the naughty one... He has a twinkle in his eye though and I've seen that twinkle before in the mirror! He's gonna cause trouble... (He will say) 'I'm out of here'; he'll be full of whiskey and Guinness and he'll do something. (I) just have that feeling, just a gut feeling."
Williams quit British pop group Take That in 1995 to launch a hugely successful solo career, but returned to the band in 2010 before heading back into the charts on his own again last year (12).