The question being pondered by many box-office analysts is: will the penguins, as the Beatles once claimed about themselves, become more popular than Jesus. The answer to that question will come when ticket receipts are counted for the animated penguin movie, Happy Feet, and the debuting religious-themed movie, The Nativity Story. Most analysts are betting on the penguins, forecasting that Happy Feet will take in $17 million-20 million. They figure that Nativity will collect $13-16 million. And they're forecasting a take of $15-17 million for the James Bond flick, Casino Royale. New Line Cinema, which is releasing Nativity, may have some difficulty coming up with an estimate on Sunday, since no one can be sure how many churchgoers will emerge from services and head for the multiplex. (Indeed, in many communities, multiplex operators set aside at least one screening room for Sunday church services.)